Automated Multi-Channel Revenue Attribution Using Markov Chains (Simplified)

This Excel model implements a simplified Markov attribution by treating user journeys as sequences of channel touches and calculating transition probabilities to estimate each channel's removal effect on conversions. Preprocess paths into transition counts, normalize to probabilities, compute absorption probabilities and marginal contributions. For sizable datasets, use Power Query to aggregate paths and matrix math via MMULT for transition computations. Present attribution results alongside last-click and linear models for comparison. Use this to inform budget allocations but verify model assumptions and stability; Markov models are sensitive to path definition and data sparsity.